Alpha, excellent work. Those are great graphs. Thank you for your sleuthing. I want you to be part of my Global Earth Repair Conference. May 8-12, 2025.
Alpha - your Substack was partly the reason I decided to do my own. You and I are on much the same trajectory with our work. When I started my Substack, I knew I was going to eventually start talking about the Biotic Pump, etc. But I have to say, I do not like the term "small water cycle". It really seems to me to diminish it's importance. What you yourself are doing are cataloguing its importance. In some areas, without this water cycle, there is no life. I am going to reference this term 'small water cycle' in my upcoming posts about it, but I am not going to use the term as the reference term. It needs a more apt description. I haven't landed on anything yet, but here are some I'm considering: living water cycle; life's water cycle, green water (I think this one is in vogue now), transpired water, etc., anything but 'small'. It is hardly small. Anyway, this is a quibble. I believe this work is so important it needs the right story with the right words to get the word out and be more influential. That is what I am after, not a "small story"!
I agree with your comment about the small water cycle. I've heard it called the short water cycle, but that also diminishes it. I've been using the term terrestrial water cycle, as it describes the role of land.
Great work! I’m curious about a related topic and hoping you might consider writing on it. How much of the world’s current desertification is caused by humans? I have heard from water folks that all desertification is caused by humans but I know that geologists can point to geological records to say different. I am sure humans have caused much desertification (especially if you count hardscaping land) but what percentage of current deserts are human caused?
Re. Map of the Small Water Cycle - This sources and sinks mapping seems like it would usefull in climate action planning, a least at the trans-regional level. Where can I get a copy of the Precipitation Shed graphic in Savenije's lecture video?
Also, How do you reconcile your summary of the Sahelian small water cycle explanation and Tim Flannery's comments in his 2005 book The Weather Makers? Flannery ( on p. 125) dismisses this interpretation as 'wrong in almost every respect'. He says that the' amount of human-caused land degradation was far too insignificant to have caused the the dramatic climate shift. Instead, a single climate variable was responsible for much of the rainfall decline: rising sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which resulted from the accumulation of greenhouse gases .... as the ocean warmed, the conditions that generate the Sahelian monsoon weaken.' Flannery also comments on 'global diming' and the importance of the Sahel's dust and the enormity of the Sahelian climate shift.... .Alpha, is there an update or synthesis on the import of this Sahelian climate shift?
Here is the link to the paper with the small water cycle map https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010WR009127 ... Yes I read Tim Flannerys chapter on this, and noted it too. I think thats the general intuitive sense people have. His book was written awhile ago. There has been however many climate models done by many different scientists, that show that land degradation can affect climate..Here is a chapter from a textbook on this https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_6 So the climate models show that Flannery is probably wrong.
Alpha, excellent work. Those are great graphs. Thank you for your sleuthing. I want you to be part of my Global Earth Repair Conference. May 8-12, 2025.
This is brilliant! Adds a whole new dimension to investigating the cause and effect of breaking severe droughts.
Great article. A long read but well worth it is this -
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-07-17/millan-millan-and-the-mystery-of-the-missing-mediterranean-storms/
Thank you so much for sharing this link. A truly amazing read. A lot to take in so no doubt this will continue to generate valuable discussion.
Alpha - your Substack was partly the reason I decided to do my own. You and I are on much the same trajectory with our work. When I started my Substack, I knew I was going to eventually start talking about the Biotic Pump, etc. But I have to say, I do not like the term "small water cycle". It really seems to me to diminish it's importance. What you yourself are doing are cataloguing its importance. In some areas, without this water cycle, there is no life. I am going to reference this term 'small water cycle' in my upcoming posts about it, but I am not going to use the term as the reference term. It needs a more apt description. I haven't landed on anything yet, but here are some I'm considering: living water cycle; life's water cycle, green water (I think this one is in vogue now), transpired water, etc., anything but 'small'. It is hardly small. Anyway, this is a quibble. I believe this work is so important it needs the right story with the right words to get the word out and be more influential. That is what I am after, not a "small story"!
Great glad you started newsletter. You can call it precipitation recycling instead of small water cycle
I agree with your comment about the small water cycle. I've heard it called the short water cycle, but that also diminishes it. I've been using the term terrestrial water cycle, as it describes the role of land.
Great work. Astounding how little this is discussed in the media. It's a crime.
I agree with Jeff, this is brilliant! Global heating may shift the geographic vectors but the basic mechanics should remain the same.
Great work! I’m curious about a related topic and hoping you might consider writing on it. How much of the world’s current desertification is caused by humans? I have heard from water folks that all desertification is caused by humans but I know that geologists can point to geological records to say different. I am sure humans have caused much desertification (especially if you count hardscaping land) but what percentage of current deserts are human caused?
Humans cause some desertification, not sure percentage. Check my article with Zach Weiss
This is so beautiful! Why would we think that creation would be other than beneficial.
A Canadian Grandma
Re. Map of the Small Water Cycle - This sources and sinks mapping seems like it would usefull in climate action planning, a least at the trans-regional level. Where can I get a copy of the Precipitation Shed graphic in Savenije's lecture video?
Also, How do you reconcile your summary of the Sahelian small water cycle explanation and Tim Flannery's comments in his 2005 book The Weather Makers? Flannery ( on p. 125) dismisses this interpretation as 'wrong in almost every respect'. He says that the' amount of human-caused land degradation was far too insignificant to have caused the the dramatic climate shift. Instead, a single climate variable was responsible for much of the rainfall decline: rising sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which resulted from the accumulation of greenhouse gases .... as the ocean warmed, the conditions that generate the Sahelian monsoon weaken.' Flannery also comments on 'global diming' and the importance of the Sahel's dust and the enormity of the Sahelian climate shift.... .Alpha, is there an update or synthesis on the import of this Sahelian climate shift?
John Bradley, Claverack (mid Hudson Valley), NY johnbrad322@gmail.com
Here is the link to the paper with the small water cycle map https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010WR009127 ... Yes I read Tim Flannerys chapter on this, and noted it too. I think thats the general intuitive sense people have. His book was written awhile ago. There has been however many climate models done by many different scientists, that show that land degradation can affect climate..Here is a chapter from a textbook on this https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_6 So the climate models show that Flannery is probably wrong.