Alpha, excellent work. Those are great graphs. Thank you for your sleuthing. I want you to be part of my Global Earth Repair Conference. May 8-12, 2025.
Greetings Michael, Where can I obtain the proceedings of your Global Earth Repair Conference? Bruce Danckwerts, CHOMA, Zambia www.radio4pasa.com/bring-back-the-rains
Michael, I have just come to this posting of Alpha's (because of his article today, 28/2/2025 on plants receiving water direct from the air) and I see you are planning a conference for May this year. Is that still on? Where will it be? I won't attend in person but I sure would like to follow it. Bruce Danckwerts, CHOMA, Zambia www.radio4pasa.com/bring-back-the-rains
We have had to postpone the May conference because the venue is having problems. but you can follow our progress and find many resources at www.globalearthrepairfoundation.org
Alpha - your Substack was partly the reason I decided to do my own. You and I are on much the same trajectory with our work. When I started my Substack, I knew I was going to eventually start talking about the Biotic Pump, etc. But I have to say, I do not like the term "small water cycle". It really seems to me to diminish it's importance. What you yourself are doing are cataloguing its importance. In some areas, without this water cycle, there is no life. I am going to reference this term 'small water cycle' in my upcoming posts about it, but I am not going to use the term as the reference term. It needs a more apt description. I haven't landed on anything yet, but here are some I'm considering: living water cycle; life's water cycle, green water (I think this one is in vogue now), transpired water, etc., anything but 'small'. It is hardly small. Anyway, this is a quibble. I believe this work is so important it needs the right story with the right words to get the word out and be more influential. That is what I am after, not a "small story"!
I agree with your comment about the small water cycle. I've heard it called the short water cycle, but that also diminishes it. I've been using the term terrestrial water cycle, as it describes the role of land.
Great work! I’m curious about a related topic and hoping you might consider writing on it. How much of the world’s current desertification is caused by humans? I have heard from water folks that all desertification is caused by humans but I know that geologists can point to geological records to say different. I am sure humans have caused much desertification (especially if you count hardscaping land) but what percentage of current deserts are human caused?
Looking at the reddest part of North America is very telling.
That pattern of red is exactly where a damaged water cycle exists.
The southern portion of that rainless land is the Colorado River Delta. Once a 3,000 sq-mi wetland, it is now a 3,000 sq-mi desert. This change is fully manmade by overuse of the freshwater in the Colorado River, which for 60-years has cut the flow 60-miles north of its natural terminus.
The heat generated by this desert is blocking moisture from the Gulf of California from moving north. This limits the moisture in the broken water cycle, and it reduces the North American Monsoon.
The water cycle which is broken moved water into the Great Basin.
Looking at this broken water cycle, one wonders if this can ever be fixed. If this continues the SW-USA is destined for aridification.
There are two things which can fix this.
1. Restore the Colorado River Delta to its original glory. Since this is unlikely to occur, then...
2. Replicate the water cycle by moving ocean water north, which can be done at a reasonable and fundable cost.
Re. Map of the Small Water Cycle - This sources and sinks mapping seems like it would usefull in climate action planning, a least at the trans-regional level. Where can I get a copy of the Precipitation Shed graphic in Savenije's lecture video?
Also, How do you reconcile your summary of the Sahelian small water cycle explanation and Tim Flannery's comments in his 2005 book The Weather Makers? Flannery ( on p. 125) dismisses this interpretation as 'wrong in almost every respect'. He says that the' amount of human-caused land degradation was far too insignificant to have caused the the dramatic climate shift. Instead, a single climate variable was responsible for much of the rainfall decline: rising sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which resulted from the accumulation of greenhouse gases .... as the ocean warmed, the conditions that generate the Sahelian monsoon weaken.' Flannery also comments on 'global diming' and the importance of the Sahel's dust and the enormity of the Sahelian climate shift.... .Alpha, is there an update or synthesis on the import of this Sahelian climate shift?
Here is the link to the paper with the small water cycle map https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010WR009127 ... Yes I read Tim Flannerys chapter on this, and noted it too. I think thats the general intuitive sense people have. His book was written awhile ago. There has been however many climate models done by many different scientists, that show that land degradation can affect climate..Here is a chapter from a textbook on this https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_6 So the climate models show that Flannery is probably wrong.
Although I support Tim Flannery's Australian Climate Council, he (and it) definitely suffer from CO2 tunnel vision. In the several years that I have been supporting them financially I have never been able to engage them in a discussion about the contribution of deforestation, soil degradation and groundwater depletion to Australia's climate problems.
This is brilliant! Adds a whole new dimension to investigating the cause and effect of breaking severe droughts.
Alpha, excellent work. Those are great graphs. Thank you for your sleuthing. I want you to be part of my Global Earth Repair Conference. May 8-12, 2025.
Greetings Michael, Where can I obtain the proceedings of your Global Earth Repair Conference? Bruce Danckwerts, CHOMA, Zambia www.radio4pasa.com/bring-back-the-rains
Michael, I have just come to this posting of Alpha's (because of his article today, 28/2/2025 on plants receiving water direct from the air) and I see you are planning a conference for May this year. Is that still on? Where will it be? I won't attend in person but I sure would like to follow it. Bruce Danckwerts, CHOMA, Zambia www.radio4pasa.com/bring-back-the-rains
Hi Bruce,
We have had to postpone the May conference because the venue is having problems. but you can follow our progress and find many resources at www.globalearthrepairfoundation.org
Great article. A long read but well worth it is this -
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-07-17/millan-millan-and-the-mystery-of-the-missing-mediterranean-storms/
Thank you so much for sharing this link. A truly amazing read. A lot to take in so no doubt this will continue to generate valuable discussion.
Alpha - your Substack was partly the reason I decided to do my own. You and I are on much the same trajectory with our work. When I started my Substack, I knew I was going to eventually start talking about the Biotic Pump, etc. But I have to say, I do not like the term "small water cycle". It really seems to me to diminish it's importance. What you yourself are doing are cataloguing its importance. In some areas, without this water cycle, there is no life. I am going to reference this term 'small water cycle' in my upcoming posts about it, but I am not going to use the term as the reference term. It needs a more apt description. I haven't landed on anything yet, but here are some I'm considering: living water cycle; life's water cycle, green water (I think this one is in vogue now), transpired water, etc., anything but 'small'. It is hardly small. Anyway, this is a quibble. I believe this work is so important it needs the right story with the right words to get the word out and be more influential. That is what I am after, not a "small story"!
Great glad you started newsletter. You can call it precipitation recycling instead of small water cycle
I agree with your comment about the small water cycle. I've heard it called the short water cycle, but that also diminishes it. I've been using the term terrestrial water cycle, as it describes the role of land.
Great work! I’m curious about a related topic and hoping you might consider writing on it. How much of the world’s current desertification is caused by humans? I have heard from water folks that all desertification is caused by humans but I know that geologists can point to geological records to say different. I am sure humans have caused much desertification (especially if you count hardscaping land) but what percentage of current deserts are human caused?
Humans cause some desertification, not sure percentage. Check my article with Zach Weiss
Great work. Astounding how little this is discussed in the media. It's a crime.
I agree with Jeff, this is brilliant! Global heating may shift the geographic vectors but the basic mechanics should remain the same.
This is so beautiful! Why would we think that creation would be other than beneficial.
A Canadian Grandma
The rainfall map...
Looking at the reddest part of North America is very telling.
That pattern of red is exactly where a damaged water cycle exists.
The southern portion of that rainless land is the Colorado River Delta. Once a 3,000 sq-mi wetland, it is now a 3,000 sq-mi desert. This change is fully manmade by overuse of the freshwater in the Colorado River, which for 60-years has cut the flow 60-miles north of its natural terminus.
The heat generated by this desert is blocking moisture from the Gulf of California from moving north. This limits the moisture in the broken water cycle, and it reduces the North American Monsoon.
The water cycle which is broken moved water into the Great Basin.
Looking at this broken water cycle, one wonders if this can ever be fixed. If this continues the SW-USA is destined for aridification.
There are two things which can fix this.
1. Restore the Colorado River Delta to its original glory. Since this is unlikely to occur, then...
2. Replicate the water cycle by moving ocean water north, which can be done at a reasonable and fundable cost.
For more details read:
https://climate-rescue.org/2023/10/29/open-letter-to-bureau-of-reclamation/
Re. Map of the Small Water Cycle - This sources and sinks mapping seems like it would usefull in climate action planning, a least at the trans-regional level. Where can I get a copy of the Precipitation Shed graphic in Savenije's lecture video?
Also, How do you reconcile your summary of the Sahelian small water cycle explanation and Tim Flannery's comments in his 2005 book The Weather Makers? Flannery ( on p. 125) dismisses this interpretation as 'wrong in almost every respect'. He says that the' amount of human-caused land degradation was far too insignificant to have caused the the dramatic climate shift. Instead, a single climate variable was responsible for much of the rainfall decline: rising sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which resulted from the accumulation of greenhouse gases .... as the ocean warmed, the conditions that generate the Sahelian monsoon weaken.' Flannery also comments on 'global diming' and the importance of the Sahel's dust and the enormity of the Sahelian climate shift.... .Alpha, is there an update or synthesis on the import of this Sahelian climate shift?
John Bradley, Claverack (mid Hudson Valley), NY johnbrad322@gmail.com
Here is the link to the paper with the small water cycle map https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010WR009127 ... Yes I read Tim Flannerys chapter on this, and noted it too. I think thats the general intuitive sense people have. His book was written awhile ago. There has been however many climate models done by many different scientists, that show that land degradation can affect climate..Here is a chapter from a textbook on this https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_6 So the climate models show that Flannery is probably wrong.
Although I support Tim Flannery's Australian Climate Council, he (and it) definitely suffer from CO2 tunnel vision. In the several years that I have been supporting them financially I have never been able to engage them in a discussion about the contribution of deforestation, soil degradation and groundwater depletion to Australia's climate problems.