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Thanks Alpha! I have a question. The British Isles are very wet at the moment, and are of course known for their high level of rainfall generally (though e.g. summer 2022 was extremely dry, to the point where people were in a bit of a panic about climate change). Yet it has been largely deforested and there is a lot of farmland where those forests once were. How does this fit in with the pattern identified?

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Britain in general is rainy because of warm ocean currents, the Gulf stream turns into the North Atlantic current. In addition to that warm air is moving up from the equator. When it hits cold air masses around Britain it creates what is called frontal rain, and a lot of water is dumped all at once. In addition Britain is in the path of the jet stream which brings storms. Global warming has unsteadied the jet stream. Deforestation around the world might also unsteady the jet stream. Parts of the jet stream might then get blocked and hang out over Britain bringing a lot of rain...... Summers though might get more dry, because global warming causes more moisture to be held in sky, and also it might be more dry because of deforestation.

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Thanks for your reply, Alpha!

These islands were deforested a long time ago, I think, so it would be interesting to know what effect that had in addition to all the influences you mention here.

I love "a lot of water is dumped all at once" - that sounds pretty British!!

It's funny how many people here long for hot dry summers, but we tend to get really worried when we actually get one!

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That’s interesting but it’s a bit of a catch 22 when the reason we usually need more rain in Europe is to grow more food. What kind of farmland did the researchers take out? Perhaps they could model different methods of farming/food production such as agroforestry, food forests, farming that places biodiversity at the core and see what happens? The debate over land use is going to become very intense and nuance and care will be needed.

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I think agroforestry would get more rain than normal modern farms based on their calculations

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All of this is very good, but we need to act quickly to protect our agriculture. Things are changing very quickly.

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